Details view of market in upcoming days (18-03-2024)

 

We will look for multi time frame analysis on nifty for upcoming view

Nifty on DAILY timeframe

Forming  rising wedge chart and inside bar candle pattern

NIFTY formed a Double Inside Bar on Daily Chart. 

Nifty has been moving within a parallel channel for some time now, gradually rising but struggling to maintain levels above ATH. 

Rising channel usually breaks to the downside only. Should it break this channel along with the support level of 21850, we could see a down move of 300-400 points. 

The next support level is at 21550, which is also the low from the previous month. However, it is important to wait for a clear breakdown before selling, rather than acting on anticipation. If it does not break this level within this week, the Nifty is likely to continue its slow and steady rise within this channel. For a better 

understanding, please refer to the chart below

 

Positional analysis on Nifty 

 

Negative divergence on RSI and MFI

Volatility divergence on Bollinger Bands

MACD is sell signal, raw MACD line sloping down

 

On lower timeframe data ( 15mins)  22200-22500 seems to be the distribution zone. Smartest selling on 6th March 2024.

20200-20300 levels now strong resistance zone.

Any bullish view only after Nifty can close above 22500 for two consecutive days

On Nifty monthly chain. 22000-22300 strikes saw OI buildup where calls sold outnumbers puts sold on this strike by a large margin, so strong bearish pressure from this zone.

22000pe now has the highest OI on the PE side on monthly strikes.

What strikes is the liquidation of the 21700pe, that's the unusual action

Nifty ....... 22023

Strong support....... 21332

Weekly chart Gap filling level support .... 20280

Just a view points,do your analysis before making any decisions 

 

THE KEY POINT OF G20 BHARAT

 The G20 Summit is over

India got pretty much everything it wanted

Here's everything India achieved in 5 points

. Consensus on Ukraine This was THE issue that was going define how the world saw India's stewardship of the G20 That's because the grouping was divided on the Ukraine war While Russia and China wanted to avoid discussion on Ukraine, Western nations wanted to condemn Russia

This issue has blocked consensus throughout 's G20 Presidency Had Delhi failed to achieve consensus and release a joint declaration, the G20 summit may have been described as a failure Eventually, a compromise was brokered that significantly toned down criticism of Russia

It was widely accepted (including by me) that India would be unable to forge a consensus on Ukraine We were wrong Delhi managed to get a joint declaration which will go down as THE big takeaway from this summit It will prove beneficial to India's diplomatic reputation

. African Union becomes G20 member The 55-nation AU became a member of the G20 today This was a significant move for India, which has try to project itself as a Voice of the Global South New Delhi can now concretely point to its record of pushing developing country concerns

. Economics Two major things stand out: debt relief and reform of international institutions On debt, poor countries have been struggling since the COVID-19 pandemic with high debt levels Efforts to work together & bail them out (including by the G20) have been slow

India managed to speed up this process by getting consensus to help new countries like Ghana, Zambia and Ethiopia The major story was also reform of institutions like World Bank & IMF Experts have called for them to lend more money for climate change & to help poor nations

At this G20 Summit, countries agreed to consider major recommendations to reform these global institutions This will allow them to spend billions on global priorities over the next decade Besides this, progress on highly complex global tax reforms also took place

. Technology First, countries agreed to consider regulations on cryptocurrencies given the threat they pose to the stability of the financial system Second, India successfully pushed Digital Public Infrastructure (basically Aadhar, UPI) as a means of financial inclusion

This is expected to help India to export its homemade tech solutions across the developing world This further boosts its international reputation as a provider of global solutions

. Climate Change The India-led Global Biofuel Alliance was also launched today The goal: To "take an initiative at a global-level to take ethanol blending in petrol up to 20%" This is part of India's larger clean energy push & will help boost 's image abroad

Nifty levels and view for expiry (7sep)

 Expiry Plan

Last 30 Minutes One sided Rally Created yet Another Hammer on Daily Chart. Looks like there's Competition of Candles on 'who makes the Best Hammer' 

i) NIFTY Did Manage to Close Above 19600, But such EOD Rallies need Followup on Next day with Gapup Open, Else There's High Chances this move gets Converted into BULL TRAP. 

ii) 19645 & 19735 Immediate Resistance for Nifty & these are strong ones as well. To Breakout with Strength above Such Past levels, Price needs a Pause for a Few Days and Hold at Higher Levels, above 19600 precisely. ELSE, Downside may begin Again below 19500 & this time for 19250 Breakdown. 

iii) Tomorrow Open if Flat & Buyer Show any Lack of Strength, NIFTY May Likely go for 19520 & 19490 test for Little Downtrending day. But, Obviously Buyer might keep coming for defense in middle levels, so it might turn into a Whispaw Day of Sorts. Best thing to do is Identify Good Location throughout the Day for All Entries. 

Overall Bias : Slight Bearish/Sideways Below 19600. 

Bullish above 19645+ 

Middle Zone for Compression & Premium Decay.

Nifty important support and resistance for tomorrow 

THE HISTORY OF INDIAN SENSEX

 Journey of Indian Stock Market*📈📈

*1979* - Sensex = *100*,

*1983* - Indian Cricket Team winning World Cup. Sensex = *212*,

*1984* - *Indira Gandhi* shot dead & Bhopal Gas tragedy. Sensex = *245*,

*1989* - *Hung Parliament* with Congress outside support. Sensex = *714*,

*1991* - *Rajiv Gandhi* assassination. Sensex = *1168*,

*1993* - Blast in Mumbai. Also at BSE buidling. *Riots all over*. Sensex = *2281*

2001- Gujarat *earthquake*. Sensex = *3640*,

2004- UPA coming to power with Left party support. Sensex = *5591*,

*2006* - Sensex conquering = *10000*,

*2007* - Sensex conquering = *20000*,

*2008* - subprime crisis

Crude oil rising upto $ 147.

Sensex below 9000

*2010* - Satyam *scam*, Common wealth scam. Sensex = *17590*,

*2013- Fed taper tantrums 

 

*2014* - *BJP* alone conquering *283 seats* in Lok Sabha and NDA coming to power with 330 seats. Sensex = *25000*.

*04/03/2015* - Sensex = Life Time *High* *30025*..! 

2016- Demonitisation 

2018- carnage in small caps 

2020- Covid. Sensex back at 25900 on 23 march 

2022-2023 Russia Ukraine war , 525 bps rate hikes by fed

 

Sensex at 65000…. 650 times 

Downturns are temporary 

India story is structural 👍

Be disciplined ..